1. You have recently been hired as the revenue manager for a 200-room hotel and have been asked to predict the number of rooms that will be sold tomorrow 7/1/2021. The general manager has provided you with the sales for the past month. Using this data on the “Historical Forecasting Data” tab do the following: |
a.) Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay (Do this all observations in the sample). What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? |
b.) Similarly, calculate an exponential smoothing model using alpha = 0.5 and 0.8. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? |
c.) Now you must determine which forecast technique you should use for your recommendation. This is determined by which method is the most accurate. Calculate the mean absolute error for each technique. Which method model should you recommend? |
d.) What other data points may help you make a more accurate prediction? |
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